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Rayford Weather Advisory

FLOOD WARNING

Issue Date: 1039 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHAT
Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
WHERE
East Fork San Jacinto near New Caney.
WHEN
Until Wednesday afternoon.
IMPACTS
At 62.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins with secondary roads near the river inundated, including FM 1485 west of the river. At 68.5 feet, Moderate lowland flooding continues with water over the lowest slab elevations of buildings on the downstream side near the gauge, as well as several hunting camps along the left bank approximately 2 miles downstream of the gauge begin to take on water. Widespread flooding continues in the vicinity of the gauge and in the right floodplain with many roads including FM 1485 inundated and closed.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS
- At 10:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 67.8 feet. - Bankfull stage is 54.5 feet. - Recent Activity
The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 10:00 PM CDT Saturday was 67.8 feet. - Forecast
The river is expected to rise to a crest of 67.8 feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning. - Flood stage is 58.0 feet. - Flood History
This crest compares to a previous crest of 67.7 feet on 05/19/1989. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood && Fld Observed Forecasts (10 pm CDT) Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sun Mon Tue East Fork San Jacinto New Caney 58.0 67.8 Sat 10 pm CD 64.0 61.8 59.1 && LAT
LON 3024 9515 3024 9504 3007 9510 3007 9520 3014 9517

FLOOD WARNING

Issue Date: 1039 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast. * WHERE...East Fork San Jacinto near New Caney. * WHEN...Until Wednesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...At 62.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins with secondary roads near the river inundated, including FM 1485 west of the river. At 68.5 feet, Moderate lowland flooding continues with water over the lowest slab elevations of buildings on the downstream side near the gauge, as well as several hunting camps along the left bank approximately 2 miles downstream of the gauge begin to take on water. Widespread flooding continues in the vicinity of the gauge and in the right floodplain with many roads including FM 1485 inundated and closed. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 67.8 feet. - Bankfull stage is 54.5 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 10:00 PM CDT Saturday was 67.8 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 67.8 feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning. - Flood stage is 58.0 feet. - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 67.7 feet on 05/19/1989. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood && Fld Observed Forecasts (10 pm CDT) Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sun Mon Tue East Fork San Jacinto New Caney 58.0 67.8 Sat 10 pm CD 64.0 61.8 59.1 && LAT...LON 3024 9515 3024 9504 3007 9510 3007 9520 3014 9517
Rayford, TX Weather Warnings, Advisories and Alerts are issued by the National Weather Service.
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Weather Warnings Explained

National Weather Service criteria for issuing Watches / Warnings / Advisories:

  • Watches: 50% confidence of meeting Warning criteria (generally within 36-48+ hours).
  • Advisories and Warnings: 80% confidence in the event occurrence (generally within 24-36 hours).

Weather Warnings Glossary


A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued when severe thunderstorms are possible in and near the watch area. It does not mean that they will occur. It only means they are possible.

Severe thunderstorms are defined as follows:

1) Winds of 58 mph/93 km/h or higher

AND/OR

2) Hail 1 inch/2.54 cm in diameter or larger.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when severe thunderstorms are occurring or imminent in the warning area.

Severe thunderstorms are defined as follows:

1) Winds of 58 mph/93 km/h or higher

AND/OR

2) Hail 1 inch/2.54 cm in diameter or larger.

Thunderstorms with wind gusts greater than or equal to 58 mph/93 km/h (50 kts) and/or hail greater than or equal to 1 inch/2.54 cm in diameter and/or a tornado.

A Tornado Watch is issued when severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area. It does not mean that they will occur. It only means they are possible.

Severe thunderstorms are defined as follows:

1) Winds of 58 mph/93 km/h or higher

AND/OR

2) Hail 1 in/2.54 cm in diameter or larger.

Likelihood of a tornado within the given area based on radar or actual sighting; usually accompanied by conditions indicated above for "Severe Thunderstorm Warning".

A Tornado Warning is issued when a tornado is imminent. When a tornado warning is issued, seek safe shelter immediately.

When any of the following is expected within the next 12 to 36 hours.

More than one predominant hazard.

  • Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard {ie. heavy snow and blowing snow (below blizzard conditions), snow and ice, snow and sleet, sleet and ice, or snow, sleet and ice} meeting or exceeding warning criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements.
Snow, Ocean Effect Snow, or Sleet.

A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to ¼ mile/.4 km or less for 3 hours or longer
AND
2)  Sustained winds of 35 mph/56 km/h or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph/56 km/h or greater.
There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions.

½ inch/1.27 cm or greater accretion of freezing rain in any zone.

When any of the following is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.

More than one predominant hazard.

Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard (i.e., snow and ice, snow and sleet, or snow, ice & sleet) meeting or exceeding advisory criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements, but remaining below warning criteria.

  • Snow, Ocean Effect Snow, and/or Sleet
    3 inches/7.6 cm averaged over a forecast zone in 12 hours.
  • Snow and Blowing Snow
    Sustained or frequent gusts of 25 to 34 mph/40 to 54 km/h accompanied by falling and blowing snow occasionally reducing visibility to less than or equal to ¼ mi/.4 km for less than 3 hours.
  • Widespread or localized blowing snow reducing visibility to less than or equal to ¼ mi/.4 km with winds less than 35 mph/56 km/h.
  • Freezing Rain
    Any accretion of freezing rain or freezing drizzle on road surfaces.
  • Black Ice
    A Special Weather Statement will usually be issued when sufficient moisture is expected to cause a thin layer of ice on road surfaces, typically on cloudless nights ("black ice"). At forecaster discretion a formal Winter Weather Advisory may be issued instead.

Sustained winds greater than or equal to 74 mph/120 km/h (greater than or equal to 64 kts) (no gust criteria) associated with a hurricane expected to affect a coastal or inland zone within 36 hours.

Sustained winds 39-73 mph/62-117 km/h (34-63 kts) (no gust criteria) associated with a tropical storm expected to affect a coastal or inland zone within 36 hours.

Short-fused warning for onset of extreme winds, defined as sustained at 111+ mph/178+ km/h (equivalent to a Category 3+ hurricane).
This is typically used for the approach of the eyewall of a major landfalling hurricane.

When the danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 36 hours, is in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.

Rapid and extreme flow of high water into a normally dry area, or a rapid water level rise in a stream or creek above a predetermined flood level, beginning within a short timeframe from the onset of heavy rain.

A dam or levee failure, or water released from an ice jam is also considered.

Expected overflow or inundation by water which causes or will cause damage and/or a threat to life.

Water level at a River Forecast point along a main stem river is expected to reach or exceed flood stage.

Expected inundation by water of some low lying and poor drainage areas, resulting in a nuisance to the public but not a threat to life and property.

A Coastal Flood Warning is issued when moderate to major coastal flooding is occurring or imminent. This flooding will pose a serious risk to life and property.

Minor coastal flooding expected. Examples include: splashover that causes a few roads to be briefly impassable, standing water in parking lots, etc.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is issued when minor or nuisance coastal flooding is occurring or imminent.

Sustained winds greater than or equal to 40 mph/64 km/h (greater than or equal to 35 kts) for at least 1 hour; OR any gusts greater than or equal to 58 mph/93 km/h (greater than or equal to 50 kts).

Sustained winds 31-39 mph/49-62 km/h (27-34 kts) for at least 1 hour; OR any gusts to 46-57 mph/74-91 km/h (40-49 kts).

Daytime heat indices of greater than or equal to 105°F/40°C for 2 or more hours.

Daytime heat indices of 95°F-99°F/35°C-37°C for 2 or more hours over 2 consecutive days, or 100°F-104°F/37°C-40°C for 2 or more hours over 1 day.

Issued for non-criteria warning/advisory heat. A heat wave is defined as 3 or more days of greater than or equal to 90°F/32°C temperatures.

When minimum shelter temperature drops to less than or equal to 32°F/0°C during growing season.

Issued under clear, light wind conditions with forecast minimum shelter temperature 33-36°F/0-2°C during growing season.

Wind chill index less than or equal to -25°F/-31°C for at least 3 hours using only sustained wind.

Wind chill index between -15°F/-26°C and -24°F/-31°C for at least 3 hours using only the sustained wind.

Brief/sudden occurrence of sustained wind or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 34 kts/39 mph/63 km/h, usually associated with thunderstorms, and/or hail greater than or equal to ¾ inch/1.91 cm in diameter; also issued for waterspouts.

Sustained winds or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 64 kts/74 mph/119 km/h (greater than 2 hrs) within 24 hours from a non-tropical system (marine only).

Sustained winds or frequent gusts 48-63 kts/55-72 mph/88-116 km/h (greater than 2 hrs) within 24 hours from a non-tropical system (marine only).

Sustained winds or frequent gusts 34-47 kts/39-55 mph/63-88 km/h (greater than 2 hrs) within 24 hrs from a non-tropical system (marine only).

Sustained winds or frequent gusts 25-33 kts/29-38 mph/47-61 km/h (greater than 2 hrs) AND/OR Seas greater than or equal to 5 feet/1.52 meters within 24 hours (marine only).

When high surf poses a danger to life in the form of rip currents or breaking seas. Generally issued when 7+ foot/2.3+ meters incoming seas reported at the buoys from Memorial Day through September.

When conditions yield ice accumulation rates less than 2 cm/hr ( 0.8 inch/hour). Favorable conditions for ice accumulation occur when air temperatures over the waters are less than or equal to 23°F/-5°C and sustained winds greater than or equal to 25 kts/29 mph/47 km/h and sea surface temperatures less than or equal to 43°F/6°C and seas greater than or equal to 4 feet/1.22 meters.

When conditions yield ice accumulation rates greater than or equal to 2 cm/hr ( 0.8 inch/hr ). Favorable conditions for ice accumulation occur when air temperatures over the waters are less than or equal to 23°F/-5°C and sustained winds greater than or equal to 25 kts/29 mph/47 km/h and sea surface temperatures less than or equal to 43°F/6°C and seas greater than or equal to 4 feet/1.22 meters.

High degree of confidence that dry fuels and weather conditions support extreme fire danger within 24 hours using the following criteria as a guide:

  • Winds sustained or with frequent gusts greater than or equal to 25 mph/40 km/h.
  • Relative Humidity at or below 30% anytime during the day.
  • Rainfall amounts for the previous 5 days less than ¼ inch/.64 cm (except 3 days in pre-greenup).
  • Lightning after an extended dry period.
  • Significant dry frontal passage.
  • Dry thunderstorms.
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index values of 300 or greater (summer only).

Widespread visibility less than or equal to ¼ mile/.4 km for at least 3 hours.

Very light ice accumulation from predominantly fog at or below freezing temperatures.

Widespread or localized smoke reducing visibilities to ¼ mile/.4 km or less.

Atmospheric conditions stable enough to cause air pollutants to accumulate in a given area. Criteria developed in conjunction with the local or state EPA and the product issued at their request.

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