Hoecradle Tank, NM Weather Warnings

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Hoecradle Tank Weather Advisories

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
Issue Date: 526 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOUTH FORK BURN SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY
At 526 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain over the South Fork Burn Scar. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will impact Upper Canyon, Brady Canyon, and Perk Canyon as well as the Cedar Creek, Eagle Creek and Rio Ruidoso drainages. Impacts will include but are not limited to all nearby reservoirs, bridges, culverts and roadways. Impacts to areas along the Rio Ruidoso may extend downstream of Ruidoso Downs. The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials. HAZARD
Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding in and around the South Fork Burn Scar. SOURCE
Radar indicated. IMPACT
Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the South Fork Burn Scar. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include
Ruidoso, Ruidoso Downs, Alto, Glencoe and Hollywood.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks, streams and ditches in the South Fork Burn Scar. Severe debris flows can also be anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed away in places. If you encounter flood waters, climb to safety. && LAT
LON 3342 10571 3342 10566 3343 10565 3344 10563 3340 10561 3338 10562 3339 10564 3334 10564 3333 10563 3336 10556 3338 10553 3343 10543 3341 10543 3333 10555 3331 10559 3331 10573 3339 10573 3339 10578 3341 10578 FLASH FLOOD
RADAR INDICATED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT
CONSIDERABLE

WEATHER ALERT
Issue Date: 525 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 6 PM MDT
At 525 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Capitan, or 9 miles north of Ruidoso, moving north at 20 mph. HAZARD
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail. SOURCE
Radar indicated. IMPACT
Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include
Capitan, Smokey Bear Historical Park, Nogal, Encinoso and Angus. This includes Highway 380 between Mile Markers 75 and 88.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening weather conditions. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT
LON 3344 10557 3346 10570 3374 10573 3369 10541 TIME
MOT
LOC 2325Z 198DEG 15KT 3350 10561 MAX HAIL SIZE
0.88 IN MAX WIND GUST
50 MPH

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Issue Date: 155 PM MST SAT OCT 24 2026
NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERNALILLO CHAVES DONA ANA EDDY LINCOLN LUNA OTERO SIERRA SOCORRO TORRANCE VALENCIA

FLOOD WATCH
Issue Date: 129 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WHAT
Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE
Portions of central, east central, north central, northeast, and southeast New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New Mexico, Central Highlands, Eastern Lincoln County, Estancia Valley, Middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque Metro Area, Sandia and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood, South Central Highlands and South Central Mountains. In east central New Mexico, De Baca County and Guadalupe County. In north central New Mexico, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Espanola Valley, Far Northwest Highlands, Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass, Jemez Mountains, Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Northwest Highlands, Santa Fe Metro Area, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Tusas Mountains Including Chama and Upper Rio Grande Valley. In northeast New Mexico, Eastern San Miguel County, Far Northeast Highlands, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass and Northeast Highlands. In southeast New Mexico, Chaves County Plains and Southwest Chaves County.
WHEN
Through late tonight.
IMPACTS
Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS
- Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage though the afternoon. Rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour may cause flash flooding on already saturated soils. Arroyos, small streams and channels may quickly rise with water from heavy rainfall. Repeated rounds of storms will increase the risk for flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. &&

Hoecradle Tank, NM Weather Warnings, Advisories and Alerts are issued by the National Weather Service.
E-mail these weather warnings to yourself, family or friends!

Weather Warnings Explained

National Weather Service criteria for issuing Watches / Warnings / Advisories:

  • Watches: 50% confidence of meeting Warning criteria (generally within 36-48+ hours).
  • Advisories and Warnings: 80% confidence in the event occurrence (generally within 24-36 hours).

Weather Warnings Glossary


A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued when severe thunderstorms are possible in and near the watch area. It does not mean that they will occur. It only means they are possible.

Severe thunderstorms are defined as follows:

1) Winds of 58 mph/93 km/h or higher

AND/OR

2) Hail 1 inch/2.54 cm in diameter or larger.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when severe thunderstorms are occurring or imminent in the warning area.

Severe thunderstorms are defined as follows:

1) Winds of 58 mph/93 km/h or higher

AND/OR

2) Hail 1 inch/2.54 cm in diameter or larger.

Thunderstorms with wind gusts greater than or equal to 58 mph/93 km/h (50 kts) and/or hail greater than or equal to 1 inch/2.54 cm in diameter and/or a tornado.

A Tornado Watch is issued when severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area. It does not mean that they will occur. It only means they are possible.

Severe thunderstorms are defined as follows:

1) Winds of 58 mph/93 km/h or higher

AND/OR

2) Hail 1 in/2.54 cm in diameter or larger.

Likelihood of a tornado within the given area based on radar or actual sighting; usually accompanied by conditions indicated above for "Severe Thunderstorm Warning".

A Tornado Warning is issued when a tornado is imminent. When a tornado warning is issued, seek safe shelter immediately.

When any of the following is expected within the next 12 to 36 hours.

More than one predominant hazard.

  • Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard {ie. heavy snow and blowing snow (below blizzard conditions), snow and ice, snow and sleet, sleet and ice, or snow, sleet and ice} meeting or exceeding warning criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements.
Snow, Ocean Effect Snow, or Sleet.

A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to ¼ mile/.4 km or less for 3 hours or longer
AND
2)  Sustained winds of 35 mph/56 km/h or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph/56 km/h or greater.
There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions.

½ inch/1.27 cm or greater accretion of freezing rain in any zone.

When any of the following is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.

More than one predominant hazard.

Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard (i.e., snow and ice, snow and sleet, or snow, ice & sleet) meeting or exceeding advisory criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements, but remaining below warning criteria.

  • Snow, Ocean Effect Snow, and/or Sleet
    3 inches/7.6 cm averaged over a forecast zone in 12 hours.
  • Snow and Blowing Snow
    Sustained or frequent gusts of 25 to 34 mph/40 to 54 km/h accompanied by falling and blowing snow occasionally reducing visibility to less than or equal to ¼ mi/.4 km for less than 3 hours.
  • Widespread or localized blowing snow reducing visibility to less than or equal to ¼ mi/.4 km with winds less than 35 mph/56 km/h.
  • Freezing Rain
    Any accretion of freezing rain or freezing drizzle on road surfaces.
  • Black Ice
    A Special Weather Statement will usually be issued when sufficient moisture is expected to cause a thin layer of ice on road surfaces, typically on cloudless nights ("black ice"). At forecaster discretion a formal Winter Weather Advisory may be issued instead.

Sustained winds greater than or equal to 74 mph/120 km/h (greater than or equal to 64 kts) (no gust criteria) associated with a hurricane expected to affect a coastal or inland zone within 36 hours.

Sustained winds 39-73 mph/62-117 km/h (34-63 kts) (no gust criteria) associated with a tropical storm expected to affect a coastal or inland zone within 36 hours.

Short-fused warning for onset of extreme winds, defined as sustained at 111+ mph/178+ km/h (equivalent to a Category 3+ hurricane).
This is typically used for the approach of the eyewall of a major landfalling hurricane.

When the danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 36 hours, is in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.

Rapid and extreme flow of high water into a normally dry area, or a rapid water level rise in a stream or creek above a predetermined flood level, beginning within a short timeframe from the onset of heavy rain.

A dam or levee failure, or water released from an ice jam is also considered.

Expected overflow or inundation by water which causes or will cause damage and/or a threat to life.

Water level at a River Forecast point along a main stem river is expected to reach or exceed flood stage.

Expected inundation by water of some low lying and poor drainage areas, resulting in a nuisance to the public but not a threat to life and property.

A Coastal Flood Warning is issued when moderate to major coastal flooding is occurring or imminent. This flooding will pose a serious risk to life and property.

Minor coastal flooding expected. Examples include: splashover that causes a few roads to be briefly impassable, standing water in parking lots, etc.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is issued when minor or nuisance coastal flooding is occurring or imminent.

Sustained winds greater than or equal to 40 mph/64 km/h (greater than or equal to 35 kts) for at least 1 hour; OR any gusts greater than or equal to 58 mph/93 km/h (greater than or equal to 50 kts).

Sustained winds 31-39 mph/49-62 km/h (27-34 kts) for at least 1 hour; OR any gusts to 46-57 mph/74-91 km/h (40-49 kts).

Daytime heat indices of greater than or equal to 105°F/40°C for 2 or more hours.

Daytime heat indices of 95°F-99°F/35°C-37°C for 2 or more hours over 2 consecutive days, or 100°F-104°F/37°C-40°C for 2 or more hours over 1 day.

Issued for non-criteria warning/advisory heat. A heat wave is defined as 3 or more days of greater than or equal to 90°F/32°C temperatures.

When minimum shelter temperature drops to less than or equal to 32°F/0°C during growing season.

Issued under clear, light wind conditions with forecast minimum shelter temperature 33-36°F/0-2°C during growing season.

Wind chill index less than or equal to -25°F/-31°C for at least 3 hours using only sustained wind.

Wind chill index between -15°F/-26°C and -24°F/-31°C for at least 3 hours using only the sustained wind.

Brief/sudden occurrence of sustained wind or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 34 kts/39 mph/63 km/h, usually associated with thunderstorms, and/or hail greater than or equal to ¾ inch/1.91 cm in diameter; also issued for waterspouts.

Sustained winds or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 64 kts/74 mph/119 km/h (greater than 2 hrs) within 24 hours from a non-tropical system (marine only).

Sustained winds or frequent gusts 48-63 kts/55-72 mph/88-116 km/h (greater than 2 hrs) within 24 hours from a non-tropical system (marine only).

Sustained winds or frequent gusts 34-47 kts/39-55 mph/63-88 km/h (greater than 2 hrs) within 24 hrs from a non-tropical system (marine only).

Sustained winds or frequent gusts 25-33 kts/29-38 mph/47-61 km/h (greater than 2 hrs) AND/OR Seas greater than or equal to 5 feet/1.52 meters within 24 hours (marine only).

When high surf poses a danger to life in the form of rip currents or breaking seas. Generally issued when 7+ foot/2.3+ meters incoming seas reported at the buoys from Memorial Day through September.

When conditions yield ice accumulation rates less than 2 cm/hr ( 0.8 inch/hour). Favorable conditions for ice accumulation occur when air temperatures over the waters are less than or equal to 23°F/-5°C and sustained winds greater than or equal to 25 kts/29 mph/47 km/h and sea surface temperatures less than or equal to 43°F/6°C and seas greater than or equal to 4 feet/1.22 meters.

When conditions yield ice accumulation rates greater than or equal to 2 cm/hr ( 0.8 inch/hr ). Favorable conditions for ice accumulation occur when air temperatures over the waters are less than or equal to 23°F/-5°C and sustained winds greater than or equal to 25 kts/29 mph/47 km/h and sea surface temperatures less than or equal to 43°F/6°C and seas greater than or equal to 4 feet/1.22 meters.

High degree of confidence that dry fuels and weather conditions support extreme fire danger within 24 hours using the following criteria as a guide:

  • Winds sustained or with frequent gusts greater than or equal to 25 mph/40 km/h.
  • Relative Humidity at or below 30% anytime during the day.
  • Rainfall amounts for the previous 5 days less than ¼ inch/.64 cm (except 3 days in pre-greenup).
  • Lightning after an extended dry period.
  • Significant dry frontal passage.
  • Dry thunderstorms.
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index values of 300 or greater (summer only).

Widespread visibility less than or equal to ¼ mile/.4 km for at least 3 hours.

Very light ice accumulation from predominantly fog at or below freezing temperatures.

Widespread or localized smoke reducing visibilities to ¼ mile/.4 km or less.

Atmospheric conditions stable enough to cause air pollutants to accumulate in a given area. Criteria developed in conjunction with the local or state EPA and the product issued at their request.

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