Bobcat Tank, NM Weather Warnings

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Bobcat Tank Weather Advisories

WEATHER ALERT
Issue Date: 544 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WHAT
Arroyo and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE
Southwestern Catron County in west central New Mexico
WHEN
Until 845 PM MDT.
IMPACTS
Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Rises in small streams and normally dry arroyos. Dangerous flows over low-water crossings. Water over roadways. Overflowing poor drainage areas.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS
- At 542 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause arroyo and small stream flooding. Up to 1.1 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include
Glenwood, Pleasanton and Alma. - Hazardous water levels are expected in the San Francisco River, Whitewater Creek, and Little Whitewater Creek. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Both localized and distant heavy rainfall will create sudden and dangerous flows in arroyos and over low water crossings. && LAT
LON 3338 10890 3337 10892 3332 10897 3329 10895 3327 10891 3328 10889 3322 10890 3321 10889 3325 10882 3330 10881 3334 10882 3336 10884 3338 10888

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issue Date: 537 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM MDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN CATRON COUNTY
The severe storms have weakened. However, small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm. && LAT
LON 3321 10878 3321 10880 3330 10904 3338 10896 3340 10882 3337 10871 TIME
MOT
LOC 2333Z 337DEG 14KT 3331 10875

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
Issue Date: 458 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SACATON AND HUMMINGBIRD BURN SCARS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CATRON COUNTY
At 458 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms exited the Sacaton and Hummingbird burn scars. Up to 1.3 inches of rain fell. Flash flooding is likely ongoing. Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will impact Willow Creek and Gilita Creek. This includes Willow Creek Road including the Ben Lilly and Willow Creek Campgrounds and any other residences in this area. Bursum Road near the Willow Creek Campground may also be impacted. Middle Fork Trail number 157 and Iron Creek Trail number 172 will be especially dangerous. The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials. HAZARD
Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding in and around the Sacaton and Hummingbird burn scars. SOURCE
Radar indicated. IMPACT
Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the Sacaton and Hummingbird burn scars. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include
Mainly rural areas of South Central Catron County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks, streams and ditches in the Sacaton and Hummingbird burn scars. Severe debris flows can also be anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed away in places. If you encounter flood waters, climb to safety. && LAT
LON 3339 10864 3341 10859 3342 10856 3342 10849 3341 10847 3338 10846 3338 10852 3337 10857 3336 10857 3333 10855 3332 10857 3332 10860 3326 10865 3325 10869 3328 10870 3332 10868 3337 10865 3338 10864 FLASH FLOOD
RADAR INDICATED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT
CONSIDERABLE

WEATHER ALERT
Issue Date: 440 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WHAT
Arroyo and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE
East Central Catron County in west central New Mexico
WHEN
Until 730 PM MDT.
IMPACTS
Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Rises in small streams and normally dry arroyos. Dangerous flows over low-water crossings. Water over roadways. Overflowing poor drainage areas.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS
- At 435 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause arroyo and small stream flooding. Up to 1.25 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are expected over the area. The potential exists for flash flooding to develop. - Some locations that will experience flooding include
Datil. - Hazardous water levels are expected in White House Canyon, Flying V Draw, and Z Slash Draw. Highway 60 will be impacted through the Sawtooth Mountains. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Both localized and distant heavy rainfall will create sudden and dangerous flows in arroyos and over low water crossings. && LAT
LON 3425 10803 3417 10805 3409 10805 3412 10802 3414 10795 3413 10783 3410 10773 3413 10773 3416 10781 3428 10790 3429 10798 3427 10800

Bobcat Tank, NM Weather Warnings, Advisories and Alerts are issued by the National Weather Service.
E-mail these weather warnings to yourself, family or friends!

Weather Warnings Explained

National Weather Service criteria for issuing Watches / Warnings / Advisories:

  • Watches: 50% confidence of meeting Warning criteria (generally within 36-48+ hours).
  • Advisories and Warnings: 80% confidence in the event occurrence (generally within 24-36 hours).

Weather Warnings Glossary


A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued when severe thunderstorms are possible in and near the watch area. It does not mean that they will occur. It only means they are possible.

Severe thunderstorms are defined as follows:

1) Winds of 58 mph/93 km/h or higher

AND/OR

2) Hail 1 inch/2.54 cm in diameter or larger.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when severe thunderstorms are occurring or imminent in the warning area.

Severe thunderstorms are defined as follows:

1) Winds of 58 mph/93 km/h or higher

AND/OR

2) Hail 1 inch/2.54 cm in diameter or larger.

Thunderstorms with wind gusts greater than or equal to 58 mph/93 km/h (50 kts) and/or hail greater than or equal to 1 inch/2.54 cm in diameter and/or a tornado.

A Tornado Watch is issued when severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area. It does not mean that they will occur. It only means they are possible.

Severe thunderstorms are defined as follows:

1) Winds of 58 mph/93 km/h or higher

AND/OR

2) Hail 1 in/2.54 cm in diameter or larger.

Likelihood of a tornado within the given area based on radar or actual sighting; usually accompanied by conditions indicated above for "Severe Thunderstorm Warning".

A Tornado Warning is issued when a tornado is imminent. When a tornado warning is issued, seek safe shelter immediately.

When any of the following is expected within the next 12 to 36 hours.

More than one predominant hazard.

  • Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard {ie. heavy snow and blowing snow (below blizzard conditions), snow and ice, snow and sleet, sleet and ice, or snow, sleet and ice} meeting or exceeding warning criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements.
Snow, Ocean Effect Snow, or Sleet.

A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to ¼ mile/.4 km or less for 3 hours or longer
AND
2)  Sustained winds of 35 mph/56 km/h or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph/56 km/h or greater.
There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions.

½ inch/1.27 cm or greater accretion of freezing rain in any zone.

When any of the following is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.

More than one predominant hazard.

Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard (i.e., snow and ice, snow and sleet, or snow, ice & sleet) meeting or exceeding advisory criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements, but remaining below warning criteria.

  • Snow, Ocean Effect Snow, and/or Sleet
    3 inches/7.6 cm averaged over a forecast zone in 12 hours.
  • Snow and Blowing Snow
    Sustained or frequent gusts of 25 to 34 mph/40 to 54 km/h accompanied by falling and blowing snow occasionally reducing visibility to less than or equal to ¼ mi/.4 km for less than 3 hours.
  • Widespread or localized blowing snow reducing visibility to less than or equal to ¼ mi/.4 km with winds less than 35 mph/56 km/h.
  • Freezing Rain
    Any accretion of freezing rain or freezing drizzle on road surfaces.
  • Black Ice
    A Special Weather Statement will usually be issued when sufficient moisture is expected to cause a thin layer of ice on road surfaces, typically on cloudless nights ("black ice"). At forecaster discretion a formal Winter Weather Advisory may be issued instead.

Sustained winds greater than or equal to 74 mph/120 km/h (greater than or equal to 64 kts) (no gust criteria) associated with a hurricane expected to affect a coastal or inland zone within 36 hours.

Sustained winds 39-73 mph/62-117 km/h (34-63 kts) (no gust criteria) associated with a tropical storm expected to affect a coastal or inland zone within 36 hours.

Short-fused warning for onset of extreme winds, defined as sustained at 111+ mph/178+ km/h (equivalent to a Category 3+ hurricane).
This is typically used for the approach of the eyewall of a major landfalling hurricane.

When the danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 36 hours, is in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.

Rapid and extreme flow of high water into a normally dry area, or a rapid water level rise in a stream or creek above a predetermined flood level, beginning within a short timeframe from the onset of heavy rain.

A dam or levee failure, or water released from an ice jam is also considered.

Expected overflow or inundation by water which causes or will cause damage and/or a threat to life.

Water level at a River Forecast point along a main stem river is expected to reach or exceed flood stage.

Expected inundation by water of some low lying and poor drainage areas, resulting in a nuisance to the public but not a threat to life and property.

A Coastal Flood Warning is issued when moderate to major coastal flooding is occurring or imminent. This flooding will pose a serious risk to life and property.

Minor coastal flooding expected. Examples include: splashover that causes a few roads to be briefly impassable, standing water in parking lots, etc.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is issued when minor or nuisance coastal flooding is occurring or imminent.

Sustained winds greater than or equal to 40 mph/64 km/h (greater than or equal to 35 kts) for at least 1 hour; OR any gusts greater than or equal to 58 mph/93 km/h (greater than or equal to 50 kts).

Sustained winds 31-39 mph/49-62 km/h (27-34 kts) for at least 1 hour; OR any gusts to 46-57 mph/74-91 km/h (40-49 kts).

Daytime heat indices of greater than or equal to 105°F/40°C for 2 or more hours.

Daytime heat indices of 95°F-99°F/35°C-37°C for 2 or more hours over 2 consecutive days, or 100°F-104°F/37°C-40°C for 2 or more hours over 1 day.

Issued for non-criteria warning/advisory heat. A heat wave is defined as 3 or more days of greater than or equal to 90°F/32°C temperatures.

When minimum shelter temperature drops to less than or equal to 32°F/0°C during growing season.

Issued under clear, light wind conditions with forecast minimum shelter temperature 33-36°F/0-2°C during growing season.

Wind chill index less than or equal to -25°F/-31°C for at least 3 hours using only sustained wind.

Wind chill index between -15°F/-26°C and -24°F/-31°C for at least 3 hours using only the sustained wind.

Brief/sudden occurrence of sustained wind or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 34 kts/39 mph/63 km/h, usually associated with thunderstorms, and/or hail greater than or equal to ¾ inch/1.91 cm in diameter; also issued for waterspouts.

Sustained winds or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 64 kts/74 mph/119 km/h (greater than 2 hrs) within 24 hours from a non-tropical system (marine only).

Sustained winds or frequent gusts 48-63 kts/55-72 mph/88-116 km/h (greater than 2 hrs) within 24 hours from a non-tropical system (marine only).

Sustained winds or frequent gusts 34-47 kts/39-55 mph/63-88 km/h (greater than 2 hrs) within 24 hrs from a non-tropical system (marine only).

Sustained winds or frequent gusts 25-33 kts/29-38 mph/47-61 km/h (greater than 2 hrs) AND/OR Seas greater than or equal to 5 feet/1.52 meters within 24 hours (marine only).

When high surf poses a danger to life in the form of rip currents or breaking seas. Generally issued when 7+ foot/2.3+ meters incoming seas reported at the buoys from Memorial Day through September.

When conditions yield ice accumulation rates less than 2 cm/hr ( 0.8 inch/hour). Favorable conditions for ice accumulation occur when air temperatures over the waters are less than or equal to 23°F/-5°C and sustained winds greater than or equal to 25 kts/29 mph/47 km/h and sea surface temperatures less than or equal to 43°F/6°C and seas greater than or equal to 4 feet/1.22 meters.

When conditions yield ice accumulation rates greater than or equal to 2 cm/hr ( 0.8 inch/hr ). Favorable conditions for ice accumulation occur when air temperatures over the waters are less than or equal to 23°F/-5°C and sustained winds greater than or equal to 25 kts/29 mph/47 km/h and sea surface temperatures less than or equal to 43°F/6°C and seas greater than or equal to 4 feet/1.22 meters.

High degree of confidence that dry fuels and weather conditions support extreme fire danger within 24 hours using the following criteria as a guide:

  • Winds sustained or with frequent gusts greater than or equal to 25 mph/40 km/h.
  • Relative Humidity at or below 30% anytime during the day.
  • Rainfall amounts for the previous 5 days less than ¼ inch/.64 cm (except 3 days in pre-greenup).
  • Lightning after an extended dry period.
  • Significant dry frontal passage.
  • Dry thunderstorms.
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index values of 300 or greater (summer only).

Widespread visibility less than or equal to ¼ mile/.4 km for at least 3 hours.

Very light ice accumulation from predominantly fog at or below freezing temperatures.

Widespread or localized smoke reducing visibilities to ¼ mile/.4 km or less.

Atmospheric conditions stable enough to cause air pollutants to accumulate in a given area. Criteria developed in conjunction with the local or state EPA and the product issued at their request.

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