Stephens Lake Number 1, TX Hourly Weather Updates

Key Messages

• Heat wave continues to build with our hottest temperatures so far this summer likely this weekend into early next week.
• Flash drought conditions will begin to quickly manifest in this increasingly hot and dry pattern, and a Fire Danger Statement has now been issued for Saturday.
• Although rain chances remain largely non-existent, cannot fully rule out very isolated convection across our easternmost zones early next week as a weak front slowly drifts into the SE CONUS.

Discussion

... Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Where have you heard this before...well, if you were hoping for a new narrative on our current weather predicament, you`re fresh out of luck. Indeed the heat appears to have set in for the long haul, and what has been mostly isolated triple-digit temperatures across our region will become more widespread into this weekend and early next week. This escalating heat wave will be further solidified as the upper-level ridge axis is centered directly overtop our region this weekend. This will snuff out nearly all cloud cover, even the typical summertime cu field as very strong subsidence will inhibit cloud formation. Therefore, expect to see our hottest temperatures so far this summer over the course of this weekend into early next week under this blocking high regime. Accordingly, we have pushed out the Heat Advisory through 8 PM Monday with further extensions expected through at least the middle of next week.

A casualty of the intense heat and lack rainfall is rapidly drying soils and vegetation that will only continue to accelerate under this stagnant pattern. As the ridge shifts overhead this weekend, look for winds to trend more southwesterly which typically results in slightly drier air mixing down to the sfc throughout the day. As a result, elevated fire danger conditions are expected so have issued a Fire Danger Statement for our entire region for Saturday with additional issuances likely through at least early next week as afternoon RH values bottom out in the 25-35 percent range over much of the region.

In terms of any changes on the horizon, rain chances remain nearly non-existent through the middle of next week even as a weak front tries to slip south into our region. However, the ridge looks to hold firm even as it retrogrades slightly westward by early next week, which may allow for very low-end rain chances over some of our easternmost zones invof of the increasingly diffuse frontal boundary. Later in the week, the ridge is progged to flatten out and eventually split off with the westernmost extent of the axis shifting even farther west while a much smaller ridge is leftover across the northern Gulf. This could be the break we`ve all been waiting for as it may provide an opening for the first bonafide front we`ve seen in quite some time by next weekend. Still early in the forecast, but at least there`s a glimmer of hope if you`re trying to find something to hang your hat on beyond this forecast period.

/19/

Aviation

... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail for all terminals this afternoon with very little change this period. Confidence on MVFR ceilings developing around sunrise tomorrow has lessened, so most terminals have been changed to SCT during that time. KLFK still has a chance of seeing MVFR cigs with the higher observed dewpoints to the south. Expect southerly winds of around 5 kts to shift southwesterly through the period with a cu field developing around 15/17z. /57/

Fire Weather

... Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Increasingly hot and dry conditions will result in rapidly drying vegetation and fuels as soil moisture is further depleted in this building heat wave with more widespread triple-digit temperatures. Flash drought conditions already appear to be underway with spot fires popping up over the past week, and elevated fire danger will only escalate further in this currently stagnant weather pattern. Therefore, the threat of wildfire starts and potential for rapid growth will only increase through this weekend as temperatures climb higher and daily min RH drops lower into the 25-35 percent range. Winds will also shift more southwesterly, resulting in even drier air mixing down to the sfc during the hours of peak heating. A Fire Danger Statement is already in effect for Saturday and more likely to follow into next week.

Watches / Warnings / Advisories

/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.