Polk Elementary School, TX Hourly Weather Updates

Key Messages

• An uptick in thunderstorm coverage, including in the lowlands, is expected this weekend into Monday, as an upper low travels across northern Mexico. Localized flash flooding will be the main hazard, typical for mid-end Monsoon days.
• Another dry and warmer spell is on the way for next week, but it may be brief, as the ridge drifts west of the area, and opens us up to weak disturbances dropping in from the northwest.

Discussion

... Issued at 1144 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Today went more or less as expected, with storms again focused over the Gila Region and down into the Bootheel. Perhaps a little more activity into Sierra and Luna Counties than I would have expected.

Our upper tropospheric low is crawling towards Coahuila, and again influenced convective development in "near-west" Texas. Some of on-going convection has drifted into Hudspeth County, roughly associated with an upper level deformation zone associated with the low. Expect we`ll see off and on convective showers in parts of Hudspeth much of the night, but with no real impact.

Overall expect a continued uptick in convection coverage tomorrow, mainly near and east of the Rio Grande, under the influence of that upper low. Its track is slowing down, however, and now Sunday looks to be a little more generous for precip chances area-wide, rather than shifting west. The western preference now slips to Monday with the slower track.

Then the ridge builds west, limiting convection coverage Tue and Wednesday, and boosting temps back towards the 100 mark. But models are continuing to suggest this will be short lived, with the eastern edge of the ridge breaking down. This will allow the weak trailing end of shortwave troughs to skirt the area, and combined with typical mid/late-monsoon recycled moisture, should be enough to boost precip chances again later in the week.

Aviation

... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Expect quiet conditions through the night at all terminals. Should see steadier SE winds develop at ELP after 09Z once a weak outflow boundary passes through. Not expecting this to trigger any shower activity either. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms expected on Saturday, with a boost in probabilities at lowland terminals, especially LRU and ELP. Some high-res models even initiate convection on the smaller desert mountain chains by 20Z, but this is a fairly low probability. Focused TSRA chances for ELP and LRU a little later in the afternoon, once the usual outflow boundary interactions from higher-mountain storms start kicking in down in the lowlands.

Fire Weather

... Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Moisture remains in place, but thunderstorm activity through this evening will remain fairly isolated and similar to the last 2 days focused out west. For Saturday, deeper moisture will start to push in from the east and moderate to heavy rainfall is possible in the Sacs with storms moving onto the lowlands later in the afternoon. Sunday looks like it could be more widespread with at least widely scattered storms areawide as a weak system moves NW up the RGV. RH`s through Sun will remain in the 20s+. Going into early next week, some drier air moves in and temperatures will warm up into the upper 90s to around 105 for the lowlands by Wed with RH`s falling into the teens.

Watches / Warnings / Advisories

/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None.