Mount Lebanon Church, SC Hourly Weather Updates

Key Messages

1. Heat Advisory in effect for most of the Upstate, NE GA, and the Charlotte Metro area for Saturday afternoon. Hot and humid weather continues into next week, with triple digit heat index values expected over the low terrain each afternoon. 2. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms develop each afternoon into early next week. Some strong to severe storms, as well as isolated nuisance flooding, will be possible each day.

Discussion

... Key message 1: Heat Advisory in effect for most of the Upstate, NE GA, and the Charlotte Metro area for Saturday afternoon. Hot and humid weather continues into next week, with triple digit heat index values expected over the low terrain each afternoon.

The upper anticyclone is forecast to remain to our west but still close enough for high heights and thickness values to remain in place over our area through much of the period. This keeps well above normal high temperatures, but short of records, across the area. Elevated dewpoints will be seen each afternoon allowing heat index values to rise above 105 along and south of the I-85 corridor. Spotty locations across the I-40 corridor could briefly reach 105 as well. Additional Heat Advisories are likely through the period. The guidance highs and dewpoints continue to waffle keeping confidence low that any location will see heat index values reach 110. That said, it will be possible over the Lakelands, so will continue to monitor.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Saturday for most of the SC Upstate, NE GA, and the Charlotte Metro area.

Key message 2: Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms develop each afternoon into early next week. Some strong to severe storms, as well as isolated nuisance flooding, will be possible each day.

With upper ridging to our west, MCVs from overnight MCSs will continue to track over our area through the weekend. This keeps scattered diurnal convection over the area with Saturday having a higher probability due to a weak surface boundary dropping toward the area. The boundary and the MCV track moves back north next week bringing more typical diurnal convective chances. The very unstable air mass along with steep lapse rates and DCAPE keeps the threat of strong to severe storms over the area as well. Chances higher on Saturday with more organization from the frontal boundary. Isolated flooding also possible with high PW values and slow moving storms.

Aviation

/00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Most showers and thunderstorms have shifted south of the area as all terminals should remain dry through tonight and Saturday morning. Leftover cloud debris from earlier showers and thunderstorms will likely stick around for the next few hours. Winds are expected to go mostly light and variable overnight tonight and pick up out of the north to northwest on Saturday. Guidance continues to show mountain valley fog/low stratus before daybreak Saturday, so hinted at this at KAVL with MVFR vsby and SCT003 cigs, but confidence isn`t high enough for lower restrictions at this time. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening across the area, so placed a PROB30 for TSRA and associated restrictions at all TAF sites.

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon with flight restrictions possible for low stratus and fog each morning, especially in the mountain valleys.

Watches / Warnings / Advisories

/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ018-026- 028-029. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ070>072- 082. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ008>014- 019-104>109.