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Forecast Discussion (CTP)
Issued: 755 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Key Messages
1) Rain over the SW won`t be enough to cause flooding over the next 24-36 hrs, but the risk returns Sat night with deep convection and possible heavy rain. Then the risk expands to the entire CWA for Sun-Sun night.
2) Fog tonight.
Discussion
... KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain over the SW won`t be enough to cause flooding over the next 24-36 hrs, but the risk returns Sat night with deep convection and passable heavy rain. Then the risk expands to the entire CWA for Sun-Sun night.
Rain is along a weak boundary and flowing right over the wettest area of the CWA. Thankfully, it is light and expected to remain that way as no ltg has been observed upstream and it should stay as stable as it has been.
There is just a tiny risk of one of the cu out in the rest of the CWA poking through the cap and making a few raindrops. Have only spotty PoPs for that possibility, and mainly in the NE.
As moisture increases ahead of a very mature cyclone crossing the Great Lakes on Sat night, overrunning precip will develop. The rain will be likely be over the SW where it is already the wetter place in the CWA. FFGs are currently above 1.25"/hr, and a mainly dry time Sat should help those rise a little. But, as we get closer in time, we will have to consider a (flash) flood watch for Sun. Chose to hold off at this point due to the time range and uncertainty with how heavy and repetitive the rain/storms will be later this weekend, and especially how wide of an area to cover with a watch. ERO from WPC hydro forecasters has nearly all of the CWA (nrn tier = not yet) in the SLGT risk category for Day 3 (Sun).
KEY MESSAGE 2: Fog tonight.
As we clear out tonight, some fog is expected as Fri AM. We aren`t expecting it to be any better or worse than last night. The valleys will be more likely to have fog, and down in the SW where there is going to be more ambient moisture.
Aviation
/00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Precipitation has ended across the state and dry conditions are anticipated for this TAF package. Have reintroduced some early morning visibility restrictions at BFD with sufficient cooling likely to develop fog in northern PA. Whether it is strong enough cooling to reach BFD remains a failure mode for fog development, so trends will be watched for the next TAF package/if any amendments will be needed. High remaining moisture remaining at JST and valley fog development in the valleys around UNV may need to be watched for visibility restrictions but kept VFR for now. Dry, VFR conditions in store for Saturday with high clouds streaming in the west ahead of the convective complex responsible for Sunday`s rain.
Outlook...
Sat...AM fog possible, otherwise VFR.
Sun...Restrictions probable in showers/thunderstorms.
Mon-Tue...VFR most of the time. Chance of showers/tstm Monday.
Wed...Afternoon showers possible, restrictions possible, VFR otherwise.
Watches / Warnings / Advisories
/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.