Cairo United Church of Christ, OH Hourly Weather Updates

Key Messages

• There is a Slight Risk for severe weather on Saturday with two rounds of storms possible. One round of storms between 5-10 AM EDT and another from 2-11 PM EDT. Damaging winds will be the main threat.
• Heavy rain and scattered flooding continue to pose threats through the weekend. A Flood Watch is in effect for much of the area south of US Route 30 from late tonight through Saturday evening.
• Dry conditions return Monday and Tuesday.

Discussion

... Issued at 125 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday, August 15th, although the forecast is still somewhat uncertain due to potential for two separate rounds of storms. A stationary front that has brought multiple rounds of rain and storms over the past few days will lift northward Saturday morning as a warm front, bringing the warm and humid airmass back overhead. Synoptically, our northwest flow `Ring of Fire` pattern continues with a building ridge over the south central US. CAMs are in solid agreement that an MCS develops in Iowa tonight and that this will be the feature to watch into tomorrow morning. This MCS should move east through northern Illinois and reach northwest Indiana between 08-11Z Saturday morning. Despite the diurnally unfavorable timing, this system should maintain its strength given adequate 0-6 km shear of 35-40 kts. Given a linear storm mode, damaging winds will be the main threat from ~5 to 10 AM EDT Saturday. This system should weaken as it pushes east, so I`d expect the best potential for any strong to severe storms to be mainly west of IN-15 in northwest and north central Indiana. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible in the afternoon and evening, mainly between 2-11 PM EDT along and east of I-69 in the Slight Risk area. Models vary widely on a solution but 30-40 kts of 0-6km shear, 100-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 SRH, and a narrow corridor of moderate instability (up to 2000 J/kg SBCAPE) may develop. This would be a favorable environment for damaging winds and an isolated, brief tornado. The afternoon round is highly conditional depending on what happens in the morning and if there is any cloud debris leftover that prevents clearing. It`s possible that the morning round may be the main show and that nothing develops in the afternoon and evening if the atmosphere is worked over.

Additional showers and storms are possible Sunday, although they are expected to be sub-severe. WPC does have our entire forecast area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Saturday and areas south of US 24 in a Marginal Risk on Sunday. Given that the ground is so saturated south of US 30, where 6-10"+ of rain has fallen since this past Tuesday, it won`t be hard to have scattered occurrences of renewed flooding. Far northern Indiana, northwest Ohio, and far southern Lower Michigan have escaped the worst of the rain recently but should repeated rounds of showers and storms track over these areas Saturday and again Sunday, some concern for flooding could develop. Precipitable water values will once again be at or above 2 inches, with the NAM and RAP even suggesting potential for them to be as high as 2.5 inches! With such high moisture content in the airmass overhead (99th percentile PWATs), any storm could be efficient rainfall producer with rain rates between 1-2" per hour. Turn Around, Don`t Drown if you encounter a flooded roadway! In addition, depending on where the heaviest rain falls, some rivers in northeast and east-central Indiana that are currently in Action or Minor flood stage may stay steady or see rises this weekend.

A welcome break from daily rain and storm chances is ahead! We finally see a reprieve in the `Ring of Fire` pattern Monday and Tuesday as high pressure briefly builds across the Great Lakes for 36-48 hours. This will allow for the area to dry out, floodwaters to recede, and for river levels to fall. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

Another chance for rain and storms comes Wednesday with a cold front, although it may be short lived. Medium and long range guidance hints at potential for another dry period by the end of the week into next weekend.

Aviation

/00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A few showers have been attempting to develop past few hours across extreme northeast Indiana and south central Lower Michigan where sfc temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s yielding some sfc based instability. Chances of showers at terminals look more minimal this evening with attention shifting upstream for likely convective initiation late this evening/early overnight. These storms are expected to develop in vicinity of a modest low level let impinging on low level boundary across northern MO/west central IL. While synoptic low level flow will favor northeast movement of this boundary, some possibility exists that convection could limit northward extent of its progress into Saturday morning. This could keep heaviest showers/storms south of the terminals, but overall not expecting much change with the 00Z TAF with showers overspreading terminals after 11Z. Given possibility of a southward trend in higher resolution models, thunder may be of a bit lower confidence but will continue with PROB30 mention at KFWA. Otherwise overnight, some patchy fog development is possible given weak flow north of the boundary.

The question for late this period will be on evolution of potential MCV leftover from the overnight convection in terms of its strength, timing, and track. Some moderate instability is possible across northeast Indiana during the afternoon with a possibility that KFWA will at least be located on northern periphery of forcing with this feature. Best chance of thunder toward end of this period should be at KFWA, but will hold off on mention at this forecast distance given uncertainties.

Watches / Warnings / Advisories

/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch from 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Saturday through Saturday evening for INZ012-013-015-020-022>027-032>034. OH...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for OHZ024-025. MI...None. MARINE...None.