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23 Flanders-Netcong Rd, Stanhope, NJ 7874Quick Clicks
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Forecast Discussion (PHI)
Issued: 651 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Key Messages
1. Cold front moves away and high pressure builds in for Saturday.
2. Unsettled weather returns Sunday into Monday.
Discussion
... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front moves away and high pressure builds in for Saturday.
High pressure will build in behind a departing cold front tonight and remain for Saturday. Except for some patchy rural fog overnight, fair weather is expected through Saturday. We generally expect highs in the mid 80s for Saturday with relatively comfortable humidity levels with a temperatures a bit cooler near the coast and over the Poconos.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns Sunday into Monday.
The next storm system arrives Sunday into Monday as a surface low moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and eventually the Mid-Atlantic, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
The biggest change with previous guidance is the spread in the timing of precipitation. There are some models that show precipitation moving in as early as 06Z to 12Z Sunday Morning. That being said, there are still a few models not showing rain move in until the afternoon. The net result of this uncertainty is that there are PoPs in place from late Saturday night all the way through Monday. This long period of rain mention is an artifact of the differences between models in the timing, but we don`t expect rain to occur for that entire period.
Regardless of the timing, the primary threat at this point is heavy rain leading to flash flooding. Global guidance shows PWAT values surging back into the 2" range, increasing the potential for heavy downpours within any thunderstorms that develop. As a result, WPC does have much of our area in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Sunday.
Depending on the timing of the storms, some instability may be in place to support a severe potential. Latest guidance is a bit more robust with upper-level forcing for ascent as well as shear, probably linked to some convectively enhanced features of the incoming trough which are tough to resolve a few days out. At this point, it remains too early to lock down any specifics for severe and flash flood, but we will need to monitor the potential over the next couple days.
Aviation
/00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...VFR expected. Patchy rural mist/fog possible and this could affect MIV but confidence too low to include in TAF. Light variable or calm winds. High confid.
Saturday... VFR expected. Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. high confid.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Sunday Morning... VFR. No significant weather. Increasing clouds Sunday.
Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%) at times with widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms anticipated.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR conditions expected.
Watches / Warnings / Advisories
/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.