Krfs-Am Superior, NE Hourly Weather Updates

Key Messages

• Another round of overnight storms likely: Mainly after 1 AM, at least scattered storms...and possibly a larger- scale/organized complex...will develop into our forecast area (CWA) out of the west-southwest, possibly bringing a threat for marginally-severe wind gusts up to ~ 60 MPH to counties along/especially south of I-80.
• Rinse/repeat the "nightly thunderstorm routine" Saturday night: While spotty/weak storms could linger through at least Sat AM, the majority of the afternoon-evening looks dry before yet another decent chance of fairly widespread storms arrives later in the night. Again, a Marginal Risk for primarily a damaging wind threat...currently most favoring our western and/or southern CWA.
• Limited concern for localized flooding through Sat night: Though not a major concern, at least small portions of of mainly the southern half of our CWA could pick up at least 1-3" of rain over the next 48 hours...a FEW places possibly getting 1-2" BOTH Fri night and Sat night. While most of this should soak in fairly efficiently/without trouble, repeated rounds could cause instances of localized/nuisance flooding.
• Thunderstorm chances beyond Sat night: Although at least limited storm activity cannot be ruled out Sunday-Monday, coverage/likelihood is lower than the preceding few nights. Although too far out in time to put too much faith into, somewhat better rain/storm chances could arrive mid-week.
• Temperature overview: For the vast majority of our CWA, the next 7 days will feature highs in the upper 70s-upper 80s, and overnight lows in the 60s. Any 90s appear most favored in our Kansas counties both Saturday and Tuesday.

Discussion

... Issued at 445 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

• By far the biggest uncertainties involve trying to decipher the "exact" details of thunderstorm chances/limited severe potential these next few nights. While nothing is "set in stone", we at least have "likely" chances/PoPs (60+%) in place for portions of our CWA both nights.
• Latest temperature forecast trends: As has been discussed for a few days here, high temps continue to creep upward for Sunday- Monday...with any cooler 70s no longer anticipated. That being said, current indications now point to Wed-Thurs being our next best chance of highs only reaching the 70s...in the wake of a cold front tentatively slated for Tuesday night.
• Big picture overview of the upper air pattern through the next week: As is typical of a summer weather pattern that features semi-regular rain chances and temperatures reasonably close to "normal" most days, our region will spend the entire time along the general interface between a large- scale high/ridge centered off to our southeast-through- southwest...and the primary upper jet core centered at least slightly to our north. However, the spatial orientation of our upper flow will evolve from mainly southwesterly these next 24 hours (upper high centered over mainly AR/LA/MS)...to more zonal/westerly Sun-Tues (as the upper high retrogrades back west over the Southern Plains...to finally more northwesterly Wed-Fri as the high sets up shop even farther west closer to the Four Corners (and a large-scale trough/low becomes more established over the eastern United States.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Fri Aug. 21):

• CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM: In the wake of widespread overnight convection that fortunately produced very minimal severe weather (but dropped as much as 2-3" of beneficial rain along a narrow axis from roughly Alma- Hastings), this morning featured lingering-but-gradually- departing showers, while this afternoon has been dry for the vast majority of our CWA. Aloft, water vapor imagery and short term model data clearly reveal a well-defined disturbance (actually a remnant mesoscale convective vortex/MCV) departing to our east over IA, while we briefly reside "in between" disturbances...with the next one gradually approaching out of CO.

While skies were mostly cloudy most all areas earlier in the day, sunshine has gradually become more prevalent in our western half, while partly/mostly cloudy skies linger longer in our east. Despite the clouds, the high temperature forecast is at least mostly on track...with the majority of our Nebraska CWA realizing highs in the low-mid 80s, and more so upper 80s-low 90s in KS. Our extreme southeastern CWA (mainly Mitchell County KS) could make a late-day/early evening run at a 100+ heat index, but this is looking increasingly-unlikely with time). Winds are very light due to a weak pressure gradient.

• THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: In short, the next/aforementioned upper wave currently over CO gradually approaches/invades our CWA...albeit arriving a bit later than last night`s disturbance. As a result, the vast majority of our CWA likely remains thunderstorm-free through at least 1 AM (perhaps a few spotty storms try brushing into our extreme southeast counties such as Mitchell/Jewell/Thayer a bit earlier in the night?). Beyond 1 AM, higher-res models such as
HRRR (which by the way has been performing quite well the last few days), brings at least scattered storms...and possibly at least a small-scale/organized cluster...into our CWA from west- southwest to east-northeast. Like last night, fairly weak deep layer shear will be a limiting factor working against much of a severe threat, but if a cold pool/organized outflow surge can get going, especially some counties along/south of I-80 could see a blast of strong to marginally-severe winds...mainly 50-60 MPH, along with perhaps a quick 1-2" of rain.

Otherwise tonight, low temps similar to last night (mainly mid 60s-low 70s, and winds will remain very light. One thing NOT currently in our official forecast (but bears watching) is the possibility for fog development...with the latest HRRR runs suggesting some fog especially in our far northeastern counties where any convection/related outflow would be weakest and/or last to arrive (something to watch).

• SATURDAY DAYTIME: In many ways very similar to how today evolved. However, given that the upper disturbance will be a bit slower to depart versus today, the morning hours will likely feature a bit greater coverage of showers/a few weak storms compared to today...possibly even lingering into early-afternoon especially in our far eastern CWA. However, like today, the vast majority of our CWA is looking at a dry afternoon with gradually- diminishing clouds. High temperatures are aimed very similar to today...again mainly 80s in Nebraska, and low-mid 90s more favored in Kansas. For one final day, our extreme southeast (mainly Mitchell County) could see 100+ heat index, but should fall short of Advisory criteria. There will be a touch more breeze than today, but only around 10 MPH out of the north- northeast.
• SATURDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: You know this routine by now: following a mainly dry evening, the next upper disturbance and associated thunderstorm chances arrive mainly post-midnight. Latest HRRR is actually fairly aggressive in bringing one complex of storms southeastward into our far western CWA< while another one rides up into our southern zones from the south-southwest...potentially merging together roughly along the state line. These details could of course yet change, but again we`ll be looking at a Marginal Risk of severe...mainly for winds up to ~ 60 MPH, along with perhaps some localized/nuisance flooding from 1-2" of rain. No matter, rain/thunderstorm chances are certainly higher over the southern half of our CWA than the north half (and have trended southward in the last 24 hours). Low temps mainly low-mid 60s.
• SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: Although the morning will surely feature some lingering showers/weak storms...and the overnight could again bring at least limited activity...this OVERALL looks like a drier 24 hours as our flow aloft starts to transition to more west- northwesterly. High temps have nudged up a bit, with the vast majority of our CWA aimed low-mid 80s (our KS zones finally shake the hotter 90s/100s of preceding days). Sunday night low temps also slightly cooler...with more in the way of low 60s most places.
• MONDAY-TUESDAY:
MOST of these 48 hours look mostly dry, but we`ll have to watch Tues night for perhaps our next best shot at rain/thunderstorms as an upper wave passing to our north sends a cold front southward through our region. Ahead of this front, Mon-Tues will be progressively warmer, with highs now aimed mainly mid 80s on Monday, and upper 80s-mid 90s on Tuesday (warmest in KS)...with this fairly clearly looking like the warmest day of the week.
• WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: While there will be intermittent/still-highly-uncertain rain and thunderstorm chances, the overall-more-confident signal at this time range is for a decent little cool-down in the wake of Tuesday night`s frontal passage. In fact, both Wed-Thurs are currently looking like highs only upper 70s-mid 80s at most...with Friday then very preliminary showing a slight -warm up to mainly low-mid 80s most areas and upper 80s-low 90s far south-southwest.

Aviation

/00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered t-storms are expected to move through central Nebraska late tonight (after 08Z for EAR/GRI), with a few showers lingering past sunrise on Saturday. MVFR ceilings are favored to prevail for a few hours after showers exit the area Saturday morning...with gradual improvement in the late morning and afternoon.

Winds will remain light/variable this evening, with locally stronger winds possible with thunderstorms early Saturday AM. Light northeast winds are expected by Saturday afternoon.

Watches / Warnings / Advisories

/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None.