Matrimony Primitive Baptist Church, NC Hourly Weather Updates

Key Messages

1) Convection chances remain into early next week, then somewhat of a lull midweek before another front arrives late week. Some storms into Sunday could be strong to severe with heavy rainfall.

Discussion

... KEY MESSAGE 1: Convection chances remain into early next week, then somewhat of a lull midweek before another front arrives late week. Some storms into Sunday could be strong to severe with heavy rainfall.

The large scale pattern continues to show upper ridge to our southwest and trough over the northeast with convective perturbations moving from the Midwest east into the Ohio Valley, then some upper flow/corfidi vectors track them across our area.

This afternoon/evening, outflows/differential heating will influence thunderstorm development. Shear will generally be weak, but strong updrafts and ample moisture will yield the potential for wet microbursts.

Not much change in the forecast though looks less active Sunday with ridge building a little more. As this happens, temperatures will continue to rise, with near Heat Advisory criteria levels possible across the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina on Sunday and Monday. By Monday evening the ridge gets flattened with more shortwaves moving across the area once again. The flow being more westerly may keep storm coverage for east of the mountains somewhat limited.

Aviation

/00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions are expected for a majority of the TAF period for all terminals through early tonight. Could see convection again tomorrow afternoon, but will be spotty.

MVFR to IFR restrictions look to develop once again at all terminals except DAN during the overnight and early morning hours on Saturday. These restrictions will likely lift shortly after 12-14z.

Overall, winds will remain light at around 5-10 knots out of the west/northwest for all terminals through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...

Pattern trend continues with daily chances for storms, though the best chance for organized storms will be Saturday. Otherwise more diurnal activity into next week. Mainly VFR outside of any storms and late night fog/stratus.

Watches / Warnings / Advisories

/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.