Bethel Mennonite Church, MN Hourly Weather Updates

Key Messages

• Low stratus and fog remain possible tonight into Saturday night. Lower confidence for stratus and fog Sunday into Sunday night with a small push of drier air.
• Scattered showers and a few storms are likely to develop Saturday afternoon especially near and east of I-29. Heavy rainfall will be the main concern, but a wind gust to 45 mph can`t be ruled out in the strongest storm.
• Monday night into Tuesday night is the next better chance for showers and thunderstorms. Isolated severe storms and pockets of heavy rain will be possible.

Discussion

... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Low pressure continues to track east northeast into western IA through this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible with this feature. The main effects should be this afternoon and confined to areas near and south of highway 20 in northwest IA. With PWAT values around 1.75" to 2", locally heavy rain will be possible, especially near this low pressure along and south of highway 20. Some question marks surround the air mass in Woodbury and Ida counties, locations that have received the most rainfall the past two days, as the morning stratiform rainfall seems to be providing some stability to the area and suppressing stronger convective activity. The latest Hi-res models continue to trend away from heavier rain near highway 20, with mainly spotty activity expected. A few downpours could lead to very localized amounts around an inch or so, but flash flooding is unlikely. Farther northwest, spotty showers will be possible with weak, diurnally driven instability. The overall effects of these diurnally driven showers will be low.

Saturday will likely start with stratus and fog in many locations. A weak wave will move through the area and likely lead to spotty showers and thunderstorms. Some hints that the better instability (about 1000 J/kg) will be north of I-90, but overall weak shear and 13 kft freezing levels suggest that pockets of heavy rain will be the main threat.

By Saturday night this wave will move southeast of the area, leaving mainly dry conditions in place for much of Saturday night into Sunday morning. Model soundings hint at the potential for some morning fog, but the depth of the low level moist layer looks much shallower, so a better chance to burn off in the morning. Drier northerly flow should lead to a pleasant Sunday with highs of 75 to 80 and dew points likely in the lower to mid 60s for most locations.

Sunday night into Monday should see mostly dry and warm conditions continue. Monday night into Tuesday night will be the next better chance for showers and storms as a trough digs in to the north and northeast. For now, the threat for severe storms and heavy rain looks low, but this will be a time frame to watch for changes.

Cooler and more stable air should settle in behind this system, with highs mostly in the 70s Thursday and Friday and only isolated chances for showers and storms.

Aviation

/00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 658 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

MVFR to IFR and locally LIFR stratus will impact the area through tonight and into tomorrow morning. Patchy fog is also possible late tonight and into early tomorrow morning. This stratus should gradually lift and erode through the early afternoon hours on Saturday generally from west to east across the area.

Thunder potential will remain very low through the early morning hours tomorrow, though a better chance of some pop-up thunderstorms will be from the mid-morninng onwards. Confidence in thunder potential remains low for tomorrow afternoon, so left out any mention in the TAFs at this time.

Winds will be light and variable through the early morning hours, with a slight uptick in west-northwesterly winds during the afternoon hours Saturday. Highest gusts will only be around 15 kts or slightly higher Saturday afternoon.

Watches / Warnings / Advisories

/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.