Lake Quivira, KS Hourly Weather Updates

Key Messages

• Dangerous heat continues for most areas today and Saturday. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for areas generally along and south of the Missouri River today. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for area north of the warning through the Highway 36 corridor.
• Thunderstorm chances continue with the most likely corridor from the Missouri River northward to the IA/MO state line.
• Some relief to the heat is likely next week, in the wake of a cold front.

Discussion

... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The synoptic pattern of late remains largely unchanged with 500-hPa ridging across the central CONUS. An MCV located over eastern NE and western IA can be seen in satellite imagery and is reflected by a weak shortwave moving through the flow. At the surface, a stationary front remains parked across northern MO with hot and humid conditions to the south of the boundary. Cloud cover and scattered showers have been present through much of the day thus far across northern MO and are tied to forcing from the MCV and shortwave. This has helped to limit temperatures along and north of US-36. Cloud cover has also been present over central MO, however, a clearing trend has been noted over the past several hours and expectation is for temperatures to climb into the mid-to-upper 90s this afternoon with dew points in the mid-70s. This will result in heat indices once again making a run towards 110F and thus the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect through 9 PM Saturday. With the showers across northern MO, it is possible that areas in the Heat Advisory may remain below criteria today, however, hot and humid conditions are expected again tomorrow, so opted to leave the advisory in effect.

The MCV is expected to track eastward across IA this afternoon and into the overnight hours, inciting convection in central and eastern IA this evening. Current expectation is for this convection to follow the CAPE gradient east-southeastward through IA, which would largely keep storms to the north of the area. However, many of the CAMs depict storms initiating off of the stationary front in northeastern MO as the forcing associated with the shortwave moves through. As such, have opted to include a 20-40% chance of storms across northeastern MO through the evening and overnight hours to account for this.

If storms are able to form, they would have 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE south of the stationary front) and 25-35 kts of deep layer shear to work with, so it is not out of the question to see organized convection overnight tonight across northeastern MO. The primary threats would be strong winds and quarter-size hail, however, with a surface boundary in play, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out where surface vorticity is maximized. Another note of concern stems from the 2-2.5" PWATs across northern MO. This, along with deep warm cloud layers, will allow storms to be very efficient rainfall producers and may lead to flash flooding, particularly if storms train along the stationary front. All of this to say, that any convection that is able to form across northern MO this evening and overnight will be worth keeping an eye on.

Saturday will see more of the same with the stationary front remaining stalled across northern MO, allowing extreme heat to build across central MO (heat indices of 105-110F). The front will once again be a focal point for convection Saturday afternoon and evening as another weak shortwave moves overhead. With 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE available, the primary limiting factor for organized convection will be deep layer shear values of 15-20 kts. As such the primary concerns on Saturday are locally heavy rainfall (PWATs remain in the 2-2.5" range) and gusty winds. Timing remains a bit uncertain at this point, but the most optimal window looks to be tied to peak heating from mid-afternoon through the evening hours.

The stationary boundary will finally begin moving southward as a cold front on Sunday. While Sunday will still be hot and humid ahead of the front, this will bring much needed relief from the oppressive conditions to the area by Monday. No heat products have been issued for Sunday at this time as the timing of the frontal passage will dictate how high the heat indices will get, however, a Heat Advisory or Extreme Heat Warning may be needed along and south of the Missouri River with future forecast cycles.

Uncertainty in the forecast climbs as model guidance diverges into next week. The ECMWF and its ensemble want to build another ridge over the central CONUS while the GFS and GEFS depict a string of shortwaves through next week, which would result in cooler and wetter conditions. Suffice it to say, the forecast will need to be monitored over the coming days to see if the relief from the heat and humidity will last or if another heat wave may be on the way.

Aviation

/00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions currently present at all terminals. Through the afternoon, light showers have begun to crop up around the forecast area. However, with drier low-levels and elevated/isolated nature of showers, not confident in prevailing weather at terminals presently. Anticipating TSRA to develop across northern Missouri overnight, with some guidance indicating impacts to KSTJ. Have elected to place a PROB30 for -TSRA at KSTJ with this in mind around 3-6z. Winds presently out of the east/southeast at terminals, which are expected to shift southwesterly through the forecast period. Ceilings remain elevated, and are expected to rise through the forecast period.

Watches / Warnings / Advisories

/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ028>033- 037>040-043>046-053-054. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ011>015-020>025. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057- 060-103>105. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ102.