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Atlantic Tropical Discussion - Time in UTC:
Latest Atlantic Tropical Report
Expires:No;;126274 AXNT20 KNHC 161720 TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jun 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is centered over northern Central America and southern Mexico. This weather pattern is known as a Central American Gyre (CAG), and often persists for several days resulting in life-threatening conditions that include flooding and mudslides. With the current CAG, the circulation is producing strong SW monsoonal flow in the eastern north Pacific that will advect abundant tropical moisture northward into the coastal terrain of Central America and southern Mexico. The pattern is expected to persist through at least the middle of this week across northern Central America and southern Mexico, with the threat to life and property increasing as the event persists. The main areas impacted by the heavy rainfall will be northwest Nicaragua, southwest Honduras, and coastal sections of Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Chiapas and Oaxaca. Heavy rainfall is also possible across Quintana Roo, Yucatan, Tabasco, Veracruz, NE Queretaro, NE Hidalgo, and San Luis Potosi this week.

The persistence of the moist pattern will create very hazardous conditions in the region that could be life-threatening. Please refer to your local meteorological office bulletins for more detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W, from 15N southward, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 55W/56W, extending from 16N southward. It is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 52W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W, then continues westward to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 05N40W to the coast of Suriname near 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N E of 16W to the coast of W Africa, and from 03N to 09N between 29W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the possibility of heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula, Tabasco, Veracruz, and parts of Queretaro, Hidalgo, and San Luis Potosi this week.

A Central American Gyre is currently over southern Mexico and Central America. A surface trough extends over the SW Gulf and runs from 24N96W to a 1005 mb low pressure located near northern Guatemala/Mexico border. The pressure gradient between a ridge across the eastern Gulf and the low supports moderate to fresh winds S of 25N and E of 92W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range E of 90W, and 2-4 ft W of 90W. Showers and thunderstorms are flared-up over the north- central and NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the gyre center is expected to persist through the middle of this week, while shifting WNW to NW into the SW Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical cyclone to develop from this broad area of low pressure, and a tropical depression could form could form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. Active convection across the southeast Gulf, along with increasing winds to gale-force and rough seas, is expected to shift westward with this system Mon through the middle part of the week, impacting the south-central and northwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the potential for heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula this week. A Central American Gyre is currently over southern Mexico and Central America. The circulation around the gyre is supporting fresh to strong SE winds over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the NW Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere except the far NE Caribbean where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. Under the SE flow, band of showers with embedded thunderstorms are noted over the NW Caribbean, particularly from 15N to 20N between 80W and 85W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted over the SW Caribbean in a S to SW wind flow.

For the forecast, the gyre center is expected to persist through the middle of this week, while shifting WNW to NW into the Gulf of Mexico. The resultant pattern will produce fresh to near gale- force SE winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of the western and northwestern Caribbean today, then shift across the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wed. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades over the central and E Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh speeds on Wed and prevail through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough extends from 31N60W to a weak 1015 mb low pressure located near 26N67W, then continues SW to near the easternmost tip of Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are N of 27N and ahead of the trough to about 55W. Another trough is analyzed farther NW and stretches from 31N68W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist N of 27N and east of the trough to about 65W. Satellite derived wind data confirmed the presence of these trough, with light to gentle winds on either side of them. To the east of 55W, high pressure prevails, with a 1026 mb center near 34N38W. Light to gentle winds generally dominate the waters W of 55W, with seas in the 2-4 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are noted, with seas in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned troughs are forecast to merge while shifting eastward with active convection continuing ahead of them. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic in the wake of the trough. An area of low pressure is forecast to form along the trough axis by midweek a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The pressure gradient between the high pressure to the N and the developing low will support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds north of 26N and west of 65W by Tue. This area of winds will shift westward in tandem with the low.

$$ GR

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